Collective forecast
Very Unlikely
Single market source with moderate trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 11–28% · moderate uncertainty (a thin, low-agreement signal)
⚡The news suggests a stronger likelihood of a delay compared to the market's current pricing.
Forecast update
Updated 43d ago
↓ 3.3percentage points this week
▲2 new supporting signals
Why this forecast
The market indicates a low probability of OpenAI filing for an IPO in 2026, currently at 17.8%. Recent news suggests that OpenAI is considering delaying its IPO to 2027 due to market uncertainties, which aligns with the market's skepticism about a 2026 filing.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 11-28%.
Key development
OpenAI is reportedly leaning towards delaying its IPO to 2027 amid market uncertainties.
Supporting signals
- ✓OpenAI has filed an S-1 registration statement, indicating readiness for an IPO.
- ✓Market conditions are currently unfavorable, leading to speculation about delays.
Risk factors
- ⚠Continued market volatility could push OpenAI to delay its IPO further.
- ⚠Negative sentiment from recent tech IPOs may impact investor confidence.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Market conditions do not improve significantly before the end of 2026.
- ✓OpenAI's internal decision-making aligns with external market signals.
How this could unfold
Explore
Run the simulation
Replay this forecast 1,000 times, drawing from its own uncertainty band each time — watch how often files for ipo actually happens.
Build a scenario
Toggle the assumptions this forecast depends on, stack as many as you like, and run them together.
Connected forecasts
How this forecast links into the wider web of futures.
Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
forbes.com
OpenAI Considers Delaying IPO To 2027 After SpaceX's Rocky Debut, Report Says - Forbes
cryptobriefing.com
Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX advance toward IPOs amid market buzz - Crypto Briefing
smartasset.com
OpenAI Stock IPO: Expected Valuation, Timeline and Investment Options - SmartAsset.com
cnbc.com
OpenAI is reportedly delaying its IPO. Here's when Kalshi traders think it will announce - CNBC