40% — Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Spain?

Collective forecast

Synthesized

40%

Unlikely

France wins 2-140%

Other score60%

Confidencelow· ▲ news bullish

Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.

Based on 1 prediction market

90% range 27–54% · moderate uncertainty (a thin, low-agreement signal)

⚡The market's probability for Spain winning suggests a competitive match, but the news indicates France's strong form, which may not align with the market's sentiment.

Forecast update

Updated 51d ago

First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.

Why this forecast

The market indicates a 40% chance that Spain will beat France in the semifinals, which suggests a competitive match. However, the specific score of 2-1 for France is not directly priced, leading to a lower probability for that exact outcome. The news highlights France's strong performance and attacking capabilities, which supports the possibility of a close match.

Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 27-54%.

Key development

France is currently undefeated and has a potent attack led by Kylian Mbappé, which could lead to a high-scoring match.

Supporting signals

✓France's recent performances have been strong, showcasing their attacking prowess.
✓Spain's recent matches indicate they can score but may struggle against France's defense.

Risk factors