Collective forecast
Very Unlikely
Single market source with moderate trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 1–2% · tight a thin, low-agreement signal
Forecast update
Updated 105d ago
↓ 1.3percentage points this week
▼Confidence weakening
▲2 new supporting signals
▲Assumption strengthened — Current containment measures remain effective.
▲Assumption strengthened — No significant changes in public health policy occur.
▼Assumption weakened — Current public health measures remain in place and effective.
▼Assumption weakened — No new outbreaks occur that could escalate into a pandemic.
▼Assumption weakened — No significant changes in the ecology or environment that would favor hantavirus spread.
Why this forecast
The market indicates a very low probability of a hantavirus pandemic occurring in 2026, with only 1.2% of traders betting on a yes outcome. Recent news about the end of a hantavirus outbreak suggests that the situation is currently under control, further supporting the low likelihood of a pandemic.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 1-2%.
Key development
The recent hantavirus outbreak linked to a cruise ship has officially ended, with no new cases reported.
Supporting signals
Risk factors
This forecast assumes
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Sources & data
forbes.com
Hantavirus Cruise Ship Outbreak Officially Over After 13 Infected, 3 Dead - Forbes
techcrunch.com
Polymarket says hackers stole users’ funds - TechCrunch
cnbc.com
Polymarket annualized revenue surpasses $1 billion six weeks after its U.S. exchange launch - CNBC
blockchain.news
Drone hits raise Russia strain; Polymarket sees 11.5% chance Putin exits by 2026 - blockchain.news