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Home/Sports/Who wins the next Super Bowl?

Collective forecast

Direct match
7%

Very Unlikely

Kansas City Chiefs win7%
Other team wins93%
Confidencemedium· ▲ news bullish

Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.

Based on 1 prediction market

90% range 4–12% · tight a thin, low-agreement signal

Forecast update

Updated 108d ago

First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.

Why this forecast

The Kansas City Chiefs are heavily favored to appear in the next Super Bowls, as indicated by the market suggesting a 7.3% probability that they will appear in two of the next three Super Bowls. This aligns with their strong performance in recent seasons and the presence of star players like Patrick Mahomes.

Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 4-12%.

Key development

Recent articles highlight the Kansas City Chiefs' consistent performance and their potential to dominate the upcoming NFL seasons.

Supporting signals

  • ✓The Chiefs have been a dominant team in recent seasons, consistently making playoff appearances.
  • ✓Patrick Mahomes' performance has been exceptional, contributing to the team's success.
  • ✓The market indicates a strong belief in the Chiefs' ability to reach the Super Bowl.

Risk factors

  • ⚠Injuries to key players could impact the Chiefs' performance.
  • ⚠Emerging teams may disrupt the Chiefs' path to the Super Bowl.
  • ⚠Changes in coaching staff or strategy could affect team dynamics.

This forecast assumes

  • ✓The Chiefs maintain their current roster and coaching staff.
  • ✓No significant injuries occur to key players.
  • ✓The competitive landscape of the NFL remains relatively stable.

How this could unfold

Strong performance in previous seasons
↓
Consistent player development and retention
↓
Effective coaching strategies
↓
Kansas City Chiefs win (7%)
↓
Increased fan engagement and support for the Chiefs
↓
Potential for higher ticket sales and merchandise revenue
↓
Impact on future betting markets and predictions

Explore

Run the simulation

Replay this forecast 1,000 times, drawing from its own uncertainty band each time — watch how often kansas city chiefs win actually happens.

Build a scenario

Toggle the assumptions this forecast depends on, stack as many as you like, and run them together.

The Chiefs maintain their current roster and coaching staff.
No significant injuries occur to key players.
The competitive landscape of the NFL remains relatively stable.

Sources & data

Prediction markets · 1+−
Will the Kansas City Chiefs appear in two of the three next Super Bowls?7% · Manifold
Recent context · 4 sources+−

cbssports.com

NFL meets FIFA: Predicting the 2027 Super Bowl champion, World Cup-style - CBS Sports

Thu, 09 Ju

nfl.com

Could one of these seven NFL teams finally celebrate first Super Bowl-era MVP in 2026? - NFL.com

Sun, 05 Ju

twsn.net

Who Will Be the Falcons Starting QB in 2026? - TWSN

Sun, 21 Ju

bleacherreport.com

Best Value Futures Bets For the 2026 NFL Season - Bleacher Report

Wed, 08 Ju
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Entities

NFLSuper BowlPatrick MahomesJim HarbaughKansas City Chiefs

Topics

SportsWorld

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