Collective forecast
Very Unlikely
Single market source with high trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 4–12% · tight a thin, low-agreement signal
⚡The market's probability of 7.4% is consistent with the news sentiment, which indicates challenges to regime stability rather than imminent collapse.
Forecast update
Updated 51d ago
Probability unchanged this week.
▲3 new supporting signals
▲Assumption strengthened — Current military and political strategies of Iran remain consistent.
▲Assumption strengthened — No significant external intervention occurs that could destabilize the regime.
▲Assumption strengthened — The regime maintains control over key military and security forces.
▼Assumption weakened — Internal dissent remains fragmented and lacks a unifying leadership.
▼Assumption weakened — International dynamics do not significantly shift in favor of regime change.
▼Assumption weakened — The current military conflict continues to escalate without resolution.
Why this forecast
The prediction market indicates a 7.4% probability that Iran's regime will fall in 2026, reflecting a low expectation of regime change. Recent news highlights significant tensions and military actions involving Iran, which may contribute to the regime's stability rather than its downfall.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 4-12%.
Key development
Iran's military actions and calls for vengeance following the assassination of Khamenei suggest a consolidation of power rather than a weakening of the regime.
Supporting signals
- ✓The Iranian regime has shown resilience in the face of external threats, as evidenced by its military responses.
- ✓Calls for vengeance from lawmakers indicate a potential rallying effect around the regime.
- ✓Recent military conflicts have historically led to increased authoritarian measures rather than regime change.
Risk factors
- ⚠Unexpected large-scale protests could destabilize the regime.
- ⚠International sanctions or military actions could weaken the regime's grip on power.
- ⚠Internal divisions within the regime could lead to a power struggle.
This forecast assumes
- ✓Current military and political strategies of Iran remain consistent.
- ✓No significant external intervention occurs that could destabilize the regime.
- ✓The regime maintains control over key military and security forces.
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
cryptobriefing.com
Iran blocks Strait of Hormuz, threatening global oil supply amid conflict - Crypto Briefing
cryptobriefing.com
Iranian lawmaker calls for vengeance after Khamenei assassination - Crypto Briefing
cryptobriefing.com
Iran justifies missile strike on US base in Qatar amid regional tensions - Crypto Briefing
cryptobriefing.com
Iran directs pro-government rallies to continue amid US, Israel tensions - Crypto Briefing