Collective forecast
Very Likely
Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 86–95% · tight a thin, low-agreement signal
Forecast update
Updated 109d ago
↓ 4.1percentage points this week
▲2 new supporting signals
▲Assumption strengthened — No significant last-minute changes in candidate line-up.
▲Assumption strengthened — Voter sentiment remains favorable towards Farage.
▼Assumption weakened — No major scandals or controversies arise before the election.
▼Assumption weakened — The election date remains as scheduled without delays.
▼Assumption weakened — Voter sentiment remains favorable towards Farage and Reform UK.
Why this forecast
The market indicates a strong belief that Nigel Farage will win the Clacton by-election, with a probability of 91.8%. Recent news confirms that the by-election has been triggered and that major parties are not contesting, which supports his chances.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 86-95%.
Key development
Major political parties have ruled out contesting the by-election, likely benefiting Farage.
Supporting signals
- ✓Farage's party faces no major opposition in the by-election.
- ✓The timing of the election aligns with Farage's political strategy.
Risk factors
- ⚠Unexpected independent candidates could emerge.
- ⚠Voter turnout may be lower than expected.
This forecast assumes
- ✓No significant last-minute changes in candidate line-up.
- ✓Voter sentiment remains favorable towards Farage.
How this could unfold
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
bbc.com
Farage's by-election in Clacton officially confirmed - BBC
globalbankingandfinance.com
Clacton By-Election Triggered by Farage Set for August 13 in UK - Global Banking & Finance Review
bbc.com
Farage's rivals rule out standing in Clacton by-election - BBC
bbc.com
A bin, two foxes and a mystic: the candidates fighting Clacton - BBC