Collective forecast
Very Unlikely
Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 7–20% · moderate uncertainty (a thin, low-agreement signal)
⚡The market probability of 12.3% for exceeding 3% growth is significantly lower than the implied probability from the news, suggesting a divergence in sentiment.
Forecast update
Updated 51d ago
First reading — check back to watch how this forecast moves.
Why this forecast
The market for the advance estimate of Q2 2026 US real GDP growth being at least 3% indicates a low probability of exceeding that threshold. Recent news from Treasury Secretary Bessent suggests optimism about GDP growth returning to 3%, but the overall market sentiment remains cautious.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 7-20%.
Key development
Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed confidence that U.S. GDP growth can return to 3% before the end of the year.
Supporting signals
- ✓Recent economic data shows GDP growth in 46 states, indicating a broad recovery.
- ✓Treasury Secretary Bessent's comments suggest confidence in economic recovery.
Risk factors
- ⚠Potential geopolitical tensions could impact economic growth.
- ⚠Inflationary pressures may hinder GDP growth despite positive signals.
This forecast assumes
- ✓No major economic disruptions occur between now and 2026.
- ✓Current economic recovery trends continue without significant setbacks.
Explore
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
cnbc.com
Treasury Secretary Bessent says U.S. GDP growth can return to 3% before end of the year - CNBC
newsweek.com
New Economic Data Shows GDP Has Grown in 46 States - Newsweek
cnbc.com
Opening Bell: June 24, 2026 - CNBC
cnbc.com
The Pre-Market Rundown 2: June 24, 2026 - CNBC
Underlying indicator
Real GDP
24180.42$B
Source: FRED · GDPC1