Collective forecast
Very Likely
Single market source with low trading volume — no second market to cross-check against.
Based on 1 prediction market
90% range 86–95% · tight a thin, low-agreement signal
Forecast update
Updated 110d ago
↑ 1.3percentage points this week
▲3 new supporting signals
▲Assumption strengthened — No major technical failures occur during the flight.
▲Assumption strengthened — SpaceX successfully completes all pre-launch tests.
▲Assumption strengthened — The launch window remains clear of adverse weather conditions.
▼Assumption weakened — No significant technical failures occur during the flight.
▼Assumption weakened — Regulatory approvals are secured in a timely manner.
▼Assumption weakened — SpaceX maintains its current launch schedule.
Why this forecast
The market indicates a strong belief that SpaceX will attempt to deploy Starlink satellites during the upcoming fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight, with a high probability of 91.3%. Recent news confirms that SpaceX is preparing to deploy functioning Starlink satellites during this flight, aligning with the market's expectations.
Statistically pooled from 1 matched market (log-odds weighted by volume), 90% CI 86-95%.
Key development
SpaceX's upcoming Starship Flight 13 is set to deploy 20 Starlink V3 satellites for the first time.
Supporting signals
- ✓SpaceX has confirmed the deployment of 20 Starlink V3 satellites during the upcoming flight.
- ✓The market shows a high confidence level of 91.3% for this deployment.
- ✓The flight is part of a series of test flights aimed at refining Starship's capabilities.
Risk factors
- ⚠Technical issues could arise during the flight that prevent satellite deployment.
- ⚠Regulatory hurdles or weather conditions could delay the launch.
- ⚠Unforeseen anomalies during the flight could impact the mission.
This forecast assumes
- ✓SpaceX successfully completes all pre-launch tests.
- ✓No major technical failures occur during the flight.
- ✓The launch window remains clear of adverse weather conditions.
How this could unfold
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Sources & data
Prediction markets · 1+
Recent context · 4 sources+
arstechnica.com
SpaceX is gearing up for Starship’s 13th test flight later this week - Ars Technica
keeptrack.space
Starship Flight 13 Set for July 16, Will Deploy Live Starlinks - KeepTrack
eciks.org
SpaceX targets July 16 for Starship Flight 13, deploying 20 Starlink V3 satellites - eciks.org
basenor.com
SpaceX Launches 24 Starlink Satellites from California - BASENOR - Tesla Accessories